Feeling hopeful

The Autumn 2011 edition of Katalyst, the newsletter from Reconciling Ministries Network has an article about whether we are ready for the change that is about to happen in the denomination. There are also a few important statistics sprinkled through this issue.

I had heard that in the 2008 General Conference the USA delegation, considered on its own, approved of removing the "incompatible with Christian teaching" clause. As we well know, the entire General Conference has yet to approve the removal. I had not heard the USA delegation actually crossed 50% back in 2004 and the margin of approval in 2008 was actually 60%. RMN expects the approval by the USA delegation to be close to 70% in May. Good news!

And for approving removal in 2012 by the whole GC? Let me get my calculator out.

70% of 606 USA delegates is about 420 (with a bit of rounding).
There are 42 delegates from Europe, likely voting for removal.
There are 48 delegates from the Philippines, and I don't know how they'll vote.
There are 10 delegates from elsewhere in the world.
There are 282 delegates from Africa, who will probably vote against removal.
That's for a total of 988 delegates. Half of that +1 is 495.

So, 420 + 42 = 462. We may only need 33 votes from the 58 delegates from the Philippines and elsewhere in the world. It may be a close vote.

I'm aware it isn't a sure thing until the votes are actually cast and I've made some assumptions that may not be true. Even so, this has made me feel hopeful that the nasty phrase may be gone next May! Good news indeed!

Of course, there is a lot of work to do before General Conference opens and there is a lot of work to do during GC. You can sign up to volunteer at GC here. With a vote that close I decided I have to be there, so I just filled in the volunteer form.